A recent report indicates that Russia and China are collaborating on a covert weapons program aimed at producing long-range drones intended for use against Ukraine. According to documents reviewed by Reuters, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned weapons company Almaz-Antey, known as IEMZ Kupol, has allegedly developed a new drone model called Garpiya-3 (G3) in China.

According to the documents, Kupol told the Russian Defense Ministry that it could manufacture drones, such as the G3, on a large scale in a Chinese plant with the help of local experts. On inquiries for responses on these allegations, Kupol and the defense ministry did not reply.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the presidential assistant to the Ukrainian president, has pointed out that almost 60% of the foreign parts that are present in Russian weaponry on the battlefield come from China. This figure demonstrates the degree to which China supplies components for Russia's military operations.

Beijing maintains that it is not fighting in Ukraine and has continuously refuted any suggestions that it has given weapons or componentry to any party involved in the conflict. In an interview with Reuters, the Chinese foreign ministry restated this position, emphasizing the nation's stringent export controls over drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and claiming it was unaware of any such project.

Research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Fabian Hinz remarked that if verified, China's transfer of UAVs to Russia would signify a dramatic change in the dynamics of the current conflict. Russia's combat capabilities might be improved by this possible partnership.

A senior fellow of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Samuel Bendett, issued a warning about the ramifications of this kind of endeavor. He pointed out that Beijing would probably be reluctant to help Moscow with its military activities in order to avoid coming under international sanctions. "For a factory to exist officially that builds UAVs for the Russians exposes China to some of the more severe effects of the sanctions, so it’s not clear the extent to which China would be willing to expose itself," Bendett told reporters.

50 kg of payload capacity and a range of about 1,243 miles (2,000 km) are claimed for the G3 UAV. The records indicate that the development is moving forward because samples of the G3 and other drone models made in China have already been sent to Kupol in Russia for additional testing.

Furthermore, the reports allege that Kupol has received seven military drones made in China, including two G3 models, at its headquarters in Izhevsk, Russia. These claims are supported by invoices sent to Kupol during the summer from a firm identified by two European intelligence sources as an intermediary with Chinese suppliers. Interestingly, the invoices request payment in Chinese yuan but do not specify delivery dates or the identities of the Chinese suppliers.

The Chinese foreign ministry has stated that China remains neutral with regard to the conflict in Ukraine, despite the claims of cooperation. With regard to what they called "double standards on arms sales," they denounced other countries, saying that they have "added fuel to the flames of the Ukrainian crisis."

Recognizing the vital role these technologies play in modern warfare, Russia and Ukraine are working to improve their drone production capacities as the conflict drags on. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, declared last week that his army had acquired over 140,000 drones in 2023 and that he intended to double that figure the following year.

“Whoever reacts faster to demands on the battlefield wins,” Putin stated during a meeting in St. Petersburg focused on drone production, emphasizing the urgency and importance of rapid technological advancement in military strategy.

The current arms race in drone technology reflects a significant trend in contemporary warfare, where UAVs have shown to be highly effective weapons. There are more significant geopolitical ramifications to this scenario, particularly in light of China's possible role as Russia's source of military technology in the face of international scrutiny.

It is unclear how the purported coordination will affect the dynamics of the Ukrainian war and the larger world reaction to these developments as the crisis unfolds.